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In three years as a reporter covering real estate, Carolyn Said of the San Francisco Chronicle tells The Real Story that she’s learned more than she ever expected: that the actions of sub prime lending in Antioch could have implications in international financial markets; that a return to classic old values may be the best new idea of the decade; and that although we may be optimistic about market recovery, that there are no quick fixes.

Carolyn suggests that the kind of Financial Fantasyland that so many Californians loved visiting in the last few years may be closed down permanently, and that life as normal may be whatever we create as the New Normal.

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The Real Story tried out a new term on Carolyn Said, real estate and financial reporter for the San Francisco Chronicle. We call it “the working surprised”—those people with good jobs who find themselves still working 40-50 hours a week at the exact same position as they did before the recession—but trying to make do with a 20 to 40 percent pay cut. These people aren’t counted in the unemployment figures, naturally—yet their means of contributing to their household and their mortgage have been reduced drastically.

Also in today’s discussion, Carolyn talks about the disappearance of “organic sellers”—people who have a home to sell because of changes in household formation, the beginning of retirement, and the like. If they don’t have to sell their homes, they are holding on to it and putting life events on hold so they don’t have to take such a loss. Of course, the end result is another kind of shadow inventory, this one comprised of resales that are being held off the market in the hopes of better days, better prices. The markets that have held onto their home prices the best? The close-in coastal areas, such as San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo. The worst? With declines up to 60 percent, that would be Solano County.

The Year of the Tiger will kick off with a roar this Saturday (2/27) at the San Francisco Chinese New Year Parade. This colorful event, which dates back to the 1860’s, has evolved into the largest such parade outside Asia. Elaborate floats, marching bands, costumed dancers, firecrackers, colored lights and plenty of drums make this parade a favorite, attracting upwards of 700,000 people. This year, floats will feature the theme of the Chinese zodiac.

The grand finale of the procession is always Gum Lung, a 200-foot long golden dragon. This sacred dragon, which symbolizes strength and goodness, has the head of a camel, horns of a dear, eyes of a rabbit, ears of a cow, neck of a serpent, belly of a frog, scales of a carp and talons of a hawk. Carried by a team of 100 men and women, Gum Lung snakes back and forth across the street to the beat of drums and the staccato of more than 600 firecrackers.

The parade route starts at Market and Second, and makes a loop around Union Square and back to Kearney, ending at Kearney and Washington.

Starting at 5:15 p.m., the parade takes place rain or shine, and—right now—they’re predicting showers.  Hooded ponchos work much better than umbrellas, as they don’t block the sight lines of those behind you.

The parade is free if you sit or stand on the curb; bleacher seating is available.

Here are some fun facts:

• Gung Hay Fat Choy, the traditional new year greeting, means “Best wishes and congratulations.  Have a prosperous and good year.”
• The Chinese new year marks the end of winter and beginning of spring.
• Before the parade, lions will be dancing through the streets of Chinatown to scare off evil spirits from businesses and shops.

Photo credit:  Knight Lights Photography

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The Real Story is talking to Carolyn Said of the San Francisco Chronicle this week. Carolyn, who writes about both financial and real estate topics, has gained a wide perspective from interviewing people about foreclosures in the last three years. Where she had a hard time finding people who would even admit to being in a foreclosure situation at the beginning of this downturn, she now talks to people who are in foreclosure not because they bought their homes during the run up of the market, but because they took out loans out against the equity in their homes to support the calling of their lifestyles—jet skis, vacations, cars.

She also tackles some of the questions about job growth in today’s interview, indicating that business is very cautious about adding jobs. Temp jobs and contract jobs are coming back, allowing employers to watch for signs of sustained revenues before adding permanent employees to their rosters. Of course, some employers are working the system, using temporary staff to sidestep paying for the additional overhead costs of full time employees.

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Many leading real estate analysts will tell you that the best indicator of a market’s recovering health lies in its months of inventory. According to Carolyn Said, real estate and financial reporter for The San Francisco Chronicle, there are some factors at work that will raise those numbers in months to come. The first is the movement toward “strategic defaults” among homeowners, where people who are financially able make the decision to stop making mortgage payments. They see it as a way of building up some wealth – inasmuch as they can live mortgage-free in their home for six months to a year – as they position themselves for the next encore of their financial lives. These strategic defaults will add to what is called “shadow inventory” – homes that are not yet in the mix, but are on their way back to the market.

Carolyn also reminds The Real Story that this is the year to start looking at the impact that the resetting of option ARMs – adjustable rate mortgages – will have on the foreclosure stock. Originally set with low payments and five years to recast into a fully-amortized loan, some of these option ARMs will be reset into numbers that will as much as double the current monthly payments. There is no guesstimate yet of how many of these homes, often sold to higher-end buyers, will join the shadow inventory.

When jobs start to grow again in Northern California, they’re likely to be green. Both federal and state stimulus programs are investing heavily in stimulating green jobs and developing a clean energy workforce.

According to a report of green job growth for the state by research firm Next10,
green jobs expanded by 36% between 1995 and 2008 in California, while “traditional” job growth grew at 13% during the same period. A few highlights from the report:

The San Francisco Bay Areas leads the state’s total green job growth with 41,674 green jobs.

Green jobs grew 48% in the San Joaquin Valley with the highest concentration in the wind energy sector.

Sacramento experienced an 87% growth rate in green jobs, primarily in air quality and environment.

How can you gain the skills needed for the new green future California’s job growth? The California Energy Commission suggests you contact your local workforce investment board or community college. Thirty-four of these institutions throughout the state have received $27 million for clean energy educational programs.

Here are some additional resources for job listing and training programs:

greenjobs.greenjobsearch.org/a/jobs/find-jobs/q-environmental/l-california

california.greenjobs.net/

www.usgbc-ncc.org/