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Who knew that the same problems that have plagued the residential real estate market exist in the world of commercial real estate?  This week, The Real Story is talking to Randy Getz, Executive Vice President of CB Richard Elllis in Sacramento.  According to Randy, the commercial real estate market is also in the process of restructuring—a process that won’t be completed any time soon.

One of the big surprises in talking with Randy is the way he correlates the rise and fall of residential real estate to the commercial sector. In Sacramento, he says, no single segment of the economy stands alone.  The frenzied building activity of the last couple of years and the ensuing run up of housing prices also increased market need for development in the industrial real estate field—up to 25% of the industrial market was tied to residential—and as residential activity fell and remained below normal levels, so fell the industrial sector.

Commercial real estate developers have the same limited access to credit that beleaguers their residential counterparts. Add to that the fact that lending on commercial buildings is considered more risky now, because of the number of tenants who close their doors or need to renegotiate their leases.  An easy bank loan on a pre-leased building?  A thing of the past.  In addition, Randy says that the transactional volume has dropped year over year for the first six months of 2008 and 2009 by 70 – 80%.

With so many Californians in the residential market, the news has focused on the hits that individuals and families have taken.  The slowdown of the commercial market has been largely ignored—yet is this going to feel like yet another shoe dropping when it comes to talk of a recovery in 2010?

Hire a professional moving company or move yourself? The real question is: spend your money or spend your time. The first step toward reaching a decision should be a frank assessment of how much time or money you have to spend.

Remember: these are not all-or-nothing questions. With as much as 20% of the U.S. population in the process of moving at any given time, the moving industry has come up with a range of services to supplement what you can comfortably do yourself.

Here are some things you’ll want to consider in making the decision:

• How far will you be moving? Truck rentals are much more economical with same-location pick up and drop off.  Do-it-yourself long distance moves often involve driving an unfamiliar rental truck long distances.
• What are your muscle-power resources? Free labor from friends and family is great, but some items require experienced movers. Even if you have strong, willing friends to help you load up on this end, do you have the resources to unload at the other?
• Look critically at your belongings. Ask yourself:  is this really worth moving? Have a yard sale to get rid of extra stuff.
• Estimate the volume of your belongings. You’ll need to do this in order to know what size truck you’ll need—and also to get estimates from moving company.  Think in terms of cubic yards. Rules of thumb: a 10-foot truck will generally hold a small apartment’s worth of stuff; a three-bedroom home will require a 24-foot truck.
• Can you divide the job? You do the packing; movers move everything. You pack, hire out loading, you drive, hire people to unload at the other end.
• Compare costs. Call several recommended moving companies and get at least three in-home estimates. Then, estimate do-it-yourself-costs, including truck rental, furniture pads, dollies, packing materials, gas, one-way surcharges. Be sure to factor in the cost of labor if you don’t do it yourself. Off-season (when school is in session) and mid-month moves will be less expensive.
• Do your homework and be wary of unlicensed operations. Check credentials with the Better Business Bureau or American Moving & Storage Association.
• Keep all receipts, as moving expenses may be tax deductible.

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It seems that the art of the long view is the best perspective for those interested in purchasing foreclosures.  The huge unknown—when will the house be worth enough to resell it?—looms large in the cash flow projections of most individuals looking at making real estate a side business.

Paul Staley of Staley and MacArthur Real Estate Services tells The Real Story about how the market for buying foreclosures has changed rapidly in recent months.  Multiple offers on foreclosures is now the rule, not the exception.  Due diligence may need to be completed in five days or less. The buyer has to be able to remove any contingencies rapidly.  And, at the end of the day, a cash offer is going to trump all.  The REO divisions of banks may take plenty of time on their side, but the prospective buyer needs to be ready to move fast—and pay more than asking price.

Paul finishes out his week with The Real Story with his forecast for the next few months.  Asked if he sees this recovery period as a “v”, or as “w-shaped”, he offers up a whole new visual:  the square root sign, with an abrupt downward motion, an upswing and that long, flat line that follows.

Beginning today, some 100,000 people will converge on Golden Gate Park for three days of rock and roll at Outside Lands Music & Arts Festival. But this is more than a concert. It’s an experience. Think Woodstock without the rain and with better food.

The name, Outside Lands, is the 19th Century name for present day Sunset District, which includes Golden Gate Park. Sponsored in three fields of Golden Gate Park as a fund-raiser for the San Francisco Parks and Recreation Department, the festival’s Facebook page promises “the most jaw-dropping three full days of fun . . . the world’s best music while eating world-class food and drinking some of the finest wines.”

A browse through the food vendors list gives reason to hope. Participants include Pacific Coast Farmers Market Assoc, the Fatted Calf, Hog Island Oysters, Asqew Grill, Dosa, Maverick (pulled pork, baby) and many other restaurants. Whatever your budget, you won’t go hungry. There’s also a refillable water program (it IS San Francisco) with logo water bottles available for purchase.

As for the music, headliners are:

Friday
Pearl Jam, Incubus, Thievery Corporation, Tom Jones

Saturday
Dave Matthews Band, Black Eyed Peas, The Mars Volta, Jason Mraz

Sunday
Tenacious D (yes, Jack Black’s group), M.I.A., Ween, Modest Mouse

Each day will feature up to 25 music groups and entertainment. Party, anyone?

Check out the web site www.sfoutsidelands.com for a full schedule of performances, activities, transit suggestion, and ticket information. Remember: because Parks and Rec gets the proceeds, it’s for a good cause.

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Paul Staley is a smart guy, and a serious businessman.  But when he says that driving around in Eastern Contra Costa County makes him think about the old sci-fi movies where all the people are gone but the buildings are still standing– all a result of a neutron bomb, and muses “we had our neutron bomb—it was called excess leverage”, you have to crack a smile for this Rod Serling sensibility on the subject of the suburbs.

Paul talks today about the importance of getting the foreclosed and abandoned homes off the market, and getting couples and families back into them to help stimulate the local markets.  Everyone—from the local grocer to the big box retailer—has suffered as whole neighborhoods have literally withered and died.  Now, with some homes becoming available as rentals and others being bought by owner-occupants, the local economies will be seeing some retail activity, just as we head into the holiday season.  Is it enough to make a difference to the beleaguered retailers?

If you’re looking for a retail experience that helps our cultural scene, head to the gift shop at your favorite museum or art gallery. Often overlooked by locals, these shops always offer a range of unique gift items: books, clothing, jewelry, art objects, glassware. . . even clothing and furniture at some shops. Members usually get a discount on purchases and many museums have on-line shops featuring selected items.

Here are some of The Real Story’s favorites:

San Francisco Museum of Modern Art
Like a museum gallery in itself, the first-floor SFMOMA shop has an incredible variety of gifts. From logo lunch bags and umbrellas to high-fashion housewares to toys, there’s literally something for everyone. The jewelry case is filled with artisan pieces, and there’s a small selection of furniture in the back.

California Academy of Sciences
As you might imagine, this gift shop has an especially fine selection of items for children.
Check out the Uncover a Shark Kit, a 3D model in a book that details shark anatomy. There is also a great selection of plush toys and science-related games and puzzles.

de Young Museum
The de Young always has a selection of gifts related to their current exhibition, which is currently Treasures of Ancient Egypt. That means everything from ankh jewelry to whimsical cobra headdresses.  An ongoing feature is Art on Demand, through which shoppers can select custom archival-quality prints from dozens of images from the de Young and the Legion of Honor. The de Young also hosts holiday craft events, so watch the calendar.

Asian Art Museum
Asian-themed merchandise includes books, recordings, ceramics, jewelry and home décor. There is always a limited selection of elegant silk jackets. The jewelry is fabulous: many vintage and one-of-a-kind pieces. No online shopping, but well worth a visit.

Jewish Contemporary Museum
Browse through the main-level shop filled with books, stationery, posters and gifts related to the Jewish Culture. Don’t miss the flame red ceramic pomegranates, symbol of hospitality. Check out the exhibition catalogues.

Photographer: Bruce Damonte - Courtesy of the Contemporary Jewish Museum, San Francisco.