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Podcast: Colleen Edwards interviews John Burns, real estate economist

Attention California: John Burns has some good news, and some bad news.

The good news? The Sacramento real estate market is among the first in the nation to see some real signs of recovery. Burns, one of the real estate industry’s best known analysts of market conditions, talks today about the variables that make Sacramento’s recovery look good: the depth of its “price corrections” and the lack of inventory, coupled with no new building activity. Although he sees more foreclosures on the horizon, he sees Sacramento as being close enough to the bottom to start calling for some recovery.

The bad news? Most of the state doesn’t live in Sacramento. And, according to John, the fundamentals underlying the market are still on shaky ground. Although his Web site http://www.realestateconsulting.com is written for his professional clientele, it shows local statistics that may be of interest to the consumer. His report card for this particular phase of the market shows that demand has increased, and home prices and mortgage rates have made homebuying more accessible nationally than at any time since 1972. But the lack of job growth and the fear of ongoing job losses continue to sap consumer confidence and cast a pall over any good news. But, John says, the worst pain and shock are behind us.

Advice from Mr. Burns? Stop focusing only on home prices and betting on them to keep coming down. Take a look instead at mortgage rates and how low they have fallen. When you do the math, locking in a great mortgage rate now may give you a better monthly payment than holding back and waiting for the perfect price.